DISTRIBUTION M&A MARKET DYNAMICS
- The US Distribution sector finished 2024 with a year-over-year decline in M&A activity recording 81 deals in Q4-24, an 18.2% decrease from Q4-23. Globally, M&A activity improved year-over-year, driven by a sharp rise in European transactions in Q4, nearly doubling from 37 in Q4-23 to 71 in Q4-24. This surge contributed to a 9.9% increase in global Q4 M&A activity, with deal volume reaching 177.
- Globally, strategic acquisitions continued to dominate the Distribution sector through Q4, comprising over 90% of all deal activity in 2024, the highest share in more than five years. Meanwhile, private equity-sponsored deals lagged, closing the year with just 42 transactions globally, the lowest in over five years. However, analysts anticipate a reversal of this trend as financial sponsors deploy more capital amid a reduced interest rate environment, highlighted by the US Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate 50 bps in Q4 alone.
- Macroeconomic indicators showed positive momentum in Q4-24. The US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index rose 6.0% year over year, ending the year in expansionary territory. Similarly, the US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key measure of manufacturing sector activity, increased by 2.5%, nearing expansion levels. Additional Q4 gains were evidenced in the Industrial Production Index, ISM Production Index, and Housing/Permits Performance, collectively suggesting an improving near-term economic outlook.
